The Gap Between Expectations and Reality

PLUS: What your SBX feedback actually revealed...

The Daily Vroom

Good morning Vroomers,

Yesterday was a big one. duPont Registry Live pushed through just over $4M in sales, although most of that came from a single Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport at $3.6M, notably the same car that traded for $4.1M on BaT back in 2024.

At the same time, the SBX story struck a nerve. The response has been strong, and there’s a lot to unpack, more on that below.

And on our side, the Import Calculator continues to get real use. You’re running scenarios, stress-testing it, and sending in thoughtful feedback, which is exactly how this gets better. Keep it coming.

YESTERDAY’S TOP 3 SALES

Want to dive deeper into any of these listings? Just click on the car to take you directly to the listing.

2022 Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport $3,612,000 (7,630 miles)

1957 Porsche 356A Speedster $491,000 (99k miles shown)

2026 Porsche 911 GT3 Touring $286,000 (970 miles)

Your SBX Cars Feedback

Yesterday’s SBX piece clearly struck a nerve.

The responses (see below for a selection of them) that came in weren’t just opinions, they were a proper cross-section of how people inside this space actually think. Different angles, different experiences, but what stood out is how quickly it all starts to line up when you zoom out.

Because this wasn’t one thing.

It was a stack. You had the audience problem. Not just size, but type. A huge following built on content, not transactions. People watching cars is not the same as people wiring six figures for them, and that gap showed up fast.

Then you had inventory. Incredible cars, no question, but so specific and so expensive that you’re instantly shrinking your buyer pool. Add in the fact that many were overseas, and you’ve made an already narrow market even narrower.

You had ambition too early. Trying to be global from day one, trying to be everything to everyone, trying to build a top-end marketplace without first building the base. That’s not a small miss, that’s a structural one.

And then you get into the harder stuff. Execution, management, expectations. Multiple people pointed to the same themes ,not enough industry depth in key areas, sellers not being guided properly, and the reality that running an auction platform is a lot more than content and listings. It’s the unglamorous work that makes or breaks you.

There’s also a bigger truth sitting underneath all of this.

In this market, a smaller, credible, buyer-focused audience will outperform a massive, untargeted one every single time. That’s not theory anymore, we’ve seen it play out again.

If you strip everything back, SBX is a really clean case study.

Not because it failed, but because it shows how easy it is to misunderstand this business from the outside.

From the outside, it looks simple. You have cars, you have eyeballs, you connect the two.

In reality, this is one of the hardest marketplaces to get right. You’re dealing with high-value assets, emotional buyers, skeptical sellers, and zero room for error. Trust isn’t a feature, it’s the whole product.

And you don’t get that overnight. The big learning here isn’t “don’t try.” They did a lot right, especially toward the end, and brought in good people who were clearly trying to turn it around.

But there’s a difference between building attention and building a marketplace that converts. That gap is where most people underestimate the work.

And as always, it’s the people in the middle that feel it most, and the one’s I feel bad for. The ones actually doing the work day to day. That’s the part of these stories that never gets talked about enough.

Interestingly, there are still cars sitting on the platform that need to sell.

One of them is a Lionel Messi–owned Porsche, currently in Germany.

Which brings it full circle. Because for any US buyer looking at something like that, the question isn’t just “do I want the car?”, it’s “what does this actually cost me to land?”

That’s exactly why we built the TDV Import Calculator. You can run the numbers properly and see where you really stand.

And judging by the response over the last few days, a lot of you are already doing exactly that.

Audience size alone doesn’t build a successful marketplace. While she may have had a larger following than Doug DeMuro, his success came from a highly targeted, transaction-ready audience and a format that built trust with buyers. The challenge here appears to be twofold. First, the high end of the market is unforgiving—low volume, high expectations, and entrenched competitors mean you have to earn credibility before you can scale.

Second, capital deployment has to match conversion reality. If the platform was built for a segment that wasn’t transacting at expected levels, the burn rate becomes unsustainable quickly. It’s also fair to acknowledge that when a business is closely tied to a personal partnership—particularly one undergoing a breakdown execution and decision-making can be impacted.

That doesn’t necessarily explain the outcome, but it can certainly contribute to instability at a critical stage. At the end of the day, the takeaway is straightforward: in this market, a smaller, highly credible, buyer-focused audience will outperform a larger, less targeted one every time.

It was too big and too global at the beginning. Ambition can get carried away, and that seemed to be the biggest problem - trying to bite off too much at first. I think it's fair to say that their main SB audience wasn't a high end buyer, but maybe a smaller, more focused beginning could have let them build that? Who knows. Sure didn't seem like a lack of talent at the company, especially at the end.

So much is wrong with their model. 
 
First, instagram followers do not convey to bidders as you indicated. Followers are not your target market. Marketing. They marketed the model wrong.  
 Auction platform. It is a clone of Barrett-Jackson’s Autohunter. A terrible platform which isn’t user friendly. The auction structure is also a clone. 
Management. The Managing Director has a terrible reputation in the industry. He was asked to leave a prior auction employer because he was incompetent. 
 Managing of expectations. They haven’t been managing expectations of sellers. At all. 
 They wanted to be all things to everyone immediately. The UAE isn’t particularly auction-friendly. See the mess that was the Worldwide auction in Riyadh. They should have focus in the USA, to start. Timing. A 13-day auction cycle has zero sense of urgency.  
 Guarantees. They should have offered guarantees or partnered with someone who can offered same.  
 This is just a fraction of the mistakes…

Both of the above plus I think they believed their own hype as "influencers". By my numbers, BaT has about a 48% sell-through rate for million dollar plus cars compared to a bit less than 70% for all reserve auctions. Million dollar cars are halo auctions for BaT. I seriously doubt you can build a successful online auction business with just these cars, unless you are an established in-person auction house. Even then, you need more affordable offerings.

There are a bevy of reasons this failed/is failing. The CEO is a brilliant guy, but he lacks freedom. The team he inherited lacks talent and deep understanding of the industry. The Managing Director is the wrong guy, and can’t mange his way out of a paper bag.

Niche inventory could have been their USP, but it was targeted (as you ably noted) to a market of content consumers, not buyers. They did a great job with site design and content creation, but those are the easy pieces of the puzzle. It would have been interesting if they had partnered with a legacy auction house with a deep client book but no on-line presence.

In addition to the reasons you indicated, they employed an individual who was a mediocre leader, has had minimal experience buying and selling personally, and while he hailed from a premier live auction company, he doesn’t understand that live auctions don’t convey to online. Managing seller expectations is key, and especially challenging. If you don’t have the skills for it, then you’ll never succeed in the industry.

Probably a mix of a few things, overvalued audience pitched to eager PE firms looking to make the next BAT. Once money was exchanged execution became very difficult. This isnt just phone a friend and film a car or receive a payment from a small brand and film a car. This requires exactly all the unsexy stuff that most people DONT want to do…

Once questions about payroll come up or a listing gets messed up or an issue regarding some code happens. Things become annoying fast. Then that money you took wants big numbers fast, so you start cutting deals to get volume. Then you get lost…are you 1 to 1 dealing with a buyer for a veneno? Or trying to sell 15 cybertrucks to get volume and show an average price point. Is the audience millions of people? bots? a mix? are they working adults or teens? are only .001% able to buy a $100k car vs the 5% you sold? Sucks to see things fail but it feels like theres a pattern here…

A few reasons. One, nobody is beat BaT. CnB at number 2 sells 20 cars a day and that’s just a fraction of BaT. Why list your XYZ super car anywhere else? Second, Alex is not a draw enough to risk losing money, she didn’t even list her own G Wagon at no reserve, that should tell you something. Lastly, it’s a well known secret a lot of that site was/is smoke and mirrors starting with the infamous AI posts. Too bad, a lot of good people worked there.

This is 100% what is wrong with many of these platforms built on "viewers" versus "buyers." I foresee Cars & Bids financiers confronting a similar reality, even though they have actual volume. You can't touch BaT because that's an audience based on BUYERS, not VIEWERS. If your main goal is survival as a company based on viewership trying to become an auction house, good luck. And if you're C&B chasing a number that puts you neck-and-neck with BaT, you will need more than luck - it's a complete tear down, rebuild strategy.

No Reserve Auctions To Keep An Eye On

There are certain cars you don’t really question whether they’re special.

The Vanquish is one of them. Early 2000s Aston, V12, Ian Callum design, the car that carried the brand into a new era. For a long time this sat right at the top of the food chain, the kind of thing you saw and just assumed was completely out of reach.

And yet here we are. Low mileage, clean example, and bidding is still sitting under $50K with real momentum building into the close which is today.

That’s always been the fascinating part with these.

Because on paper, this is exactly what people say they want in a modern classic. It looks right, sounds right, and has all the ingredients. But in reality, these sit in an awkward middle ground. Too expensive to run for someone stretching into the car, and not quite settled enough as a collectible for buyers to step in with conviction.

And then there’s the gearbox, everyone has an opinion on it, and most haven’t driven one. It scares people off before they’ve even given the car a chance. The owners who actually live with them tend to say the same thing, learn it properly, and it becomes part of the experience.

What’s interesting is not that this is cheap. It’s that everyone looking at it knows exactly what it is and still hesitates.

That’s the Vanquish problem. Not awareness, not design, not even performance. It’s the ownership question sitting in the back of every buyer’s mind. Running costs, gearbox reputation, the unknowns that come with a car like this.

There’s a version of this car everyone says they want. Low miles, completely stock, perfect, tucked away somewhere and barely used.

This isn’t that car. C5 Z06, one of the great driver’s cars of its era. LS6, manual, lightweight, properly quick even today. These built their reputation by being driven, tracked, and used as intended.

This one has clearly lived that life. It’s not perfect, it’s been modified, and the seller hasn’t tried to hide any of it. If anything, they’ve leaned into it, laid everything out, shown the flaws, and let people make up their own minds.

And importantly, they’ve listed it no reserve. We’ve talked about this before, what happens when a car doesn’t sell. Expectations get set too high, the market doesn’t meet them, and the car just sits in limbo.

This feels like the opposite approach. Instead of forcing a number, the seller’s reset the conversation. Put it in a no reserve environment, surround it with other cars, price the risk in, and let the market decide where it actually belongs.

It’s already been around a few times, which tells you expectations and reality haven’t quite lined up. And that’s really the story here.

Because once a car moves out of the “collector-grade” lane, everything changes. You’re not selling perfection anymore, you’re selling honesty. A car someone can drive, use, and not worry about keeping pristine.

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